Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:56:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6152…fc78 politics 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% $0
other 33% $0
sports 11% $0
crypto 11% $0
tech 6% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 17 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage107d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 24 $79 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $159 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 27 $79 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $79 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $79 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 15 $79 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $79 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $81 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $81 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $81 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $81 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $81 $0 +0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 23 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $81 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 10 $81 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $79 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $79 17h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $79 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $79 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $79 17d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $66 17d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $79 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $79 28d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 34d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 34d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $79 38d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $79 40d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $79 40d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $79 42d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $79 42d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $79 47d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $79 47d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $81 67d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $81 68d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $81 71d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $81 71d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 74d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 75d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 80d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 80d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $81 86d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $81 86d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $81 92d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records