Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

61
0x6153…44ab
other · 65 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$137 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$139 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$300
Realized+$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses7 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)56 / 65
History coverage3d
Avg bet$689
Trades / day1126.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 10 History 56 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$119
7 days+$139
14 days+$139
30 days+$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $785 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $461 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 12 $3,842 +$30 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $2,242 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $3,049 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 12 $413 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $773 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $326 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $482 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $513 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $312 $0 -0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $767 +$30 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $780 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $476 +$30 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 12 $279 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $924 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $88 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $432 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $29 +$3 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $1,680 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $296 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 12 $87 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $404 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $3,052 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $2,833 −$1 -0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,131 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $544 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $151 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $121 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $183 $0 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $304 $0 -0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $634 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $121 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $475 $0 -0%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $1,402 +$37 +3%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $229 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $1,433 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 32% +$36
world 26% +$49
tech 18% −$2
politics 11% +$28
economics 8% +$29
crypto 6% −$1
finance 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 7m
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 7m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $29 8m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $37 17m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $96 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $61 24m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $15 24m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $20 24m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $20 24m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $20 24m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $76 24m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $17 24m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $49 24m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $11 24m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $61 24m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $61 24m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $17 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $17 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $17 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $17 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $17 26m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $17 26m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $6 26m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $6 26m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $36 27m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $36 27m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $0 27m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $9 27m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $9 27m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $9 28m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +0.7% -8.9% 12% 4% -9.2%
≤30d 56 +0.7% -8.9% 12% 4% -9.2%
≤90d 56 +0.7% -8.9% 12% 4% -9.2%
all 56 +0.7% -8.9% 12% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1126.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 4% -9.2%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -25.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.60 · official $298.80 (match) · 3500 history records