Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
61 0x6157…9fb4 sports 281 markets active 5h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$150,142 (+19%) realized +$153,838 · open −$3,696
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%166W / 113L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$2,801per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$9,525est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2,304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15,200
7 days+$38,265
14 days+$55,287
30 days+$103,422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$139,050
other 4% −$173
crypto 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +47.7% +33.7% 71% 71% +27.5%
≤30d 135 +20.7% +9.2% 61% 61% +12.9%
≤90d 269 +11.8% +1.2% 59% 59% +6.3%
all 279 +13.1% +2.4% 59% 59% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.4% 59% +7.1%
10% ← realistic here -7.4% 59% -3.2%
15% -16.4% 59% -12.5%
20% -24.6% 56% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$3,048) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,455 vs −$2,346 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$2,304
Realized+$153,838
Unrealized−$3,696
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses166 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$9,525
Open positions2
Markets (closed)279 / 281
History coverage93d
Avg bet$2,801
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 68¢ 26¢ $3,000 $1,152 −$1,848 (-62%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 22¢ $3,000 $1,152 −$1,848 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2,525 −$2,500 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2,537 −$2,500 -99%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1,518 +$1,015 +67%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1,518 −$1,500 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5,075 +$4,962 +98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2,532 −$2,500 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,672 +$1,328 +79%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,816 −$1,785 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4,425 +$3,075 +70%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3,040 +$2,414 +79%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $2,025 +$1,365 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 Jun 14 $1,520 +$1,149 +76%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10,156 +$10,677 +105%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $7,591 −$7,500 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3,049 +$3,473 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3,037 +$2,048 +67%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $3,544 +$2,490 +70%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $512 +$2,426 +473%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2,226 +$1,423 +64%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $10,141 +$8,727 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 10 $10,134 −$476 -5%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $2,530 +$1,649 +65%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $6,586 +$5,021 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $4,059 +$3,784 +93%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $3,045 −$3,000 -98%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 07 $3,175 +$2,325 +73%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 07 $2,190 −$2,160 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $3,044 +$2,838 +93%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $5,069 +$4,190 +83%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $4,060 +$3,932 +97%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 06 $3,944 +$2,346 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 05 $2,843 −$2,800 -98%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 05 $3,043 −$187 -6%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $1,013 +$773 +76%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $14,954 +$12,361 +83%
Mensik vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 05 $3,042 −$3,000 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 04 $5,075 −$5,000 -98%
Kostyuk vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 04 $2,027 −$2,000 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $1,985 +$2,087 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 04 $2,029 −$2,000 -99%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 03 $2,531 +$1,734 +68%
Kalinskaya vs. Chwalinska: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 03 $1,420 +$1,302 +92%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $15,018 +$14,017 +93%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 02 $5,081 −$5,000 -98%
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 02 $7,095 −$7,000 -99%
Svitolina vs. Kostyuk: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 02 $3,040 +$2,324 +76%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $3,042 +$2,618 +86%
Jodar vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 02 $2,838 −$2,800 -99%
Andreeva vs. Cirstea: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 02 $2,992 −$2,950 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 02 $2,282 −$2,250 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $3,029 5h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $3,040 6h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 66¢ $2,525 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $2,537 13h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 60¢ $1,518 14h
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,518 14h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 50¢ $5,075 15h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 57¢ $2,532 15h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1,816 19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $1,672 21h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $97 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $726 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $961 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $955 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $961 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $725 24h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3,040 37h
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Knicks 59¢ $2,025 39h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1,520 40h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10,156 43h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $5,060 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $2,531 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $3,049 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $3,037 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3,544 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,938 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2,226 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $512 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10,141 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 SELL Over 54¢ $9,658 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,303.64 · official $2,303.64 (match) · 575 history records