Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:41:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6159…6f49 world 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%33W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$2
other 21% −$4
politics 16% −$4
sports 15% +$1
economics 5% $0
finance 5% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.0% -8.6% 62% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 26 -1.1% -10.5% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 68 -1.0% -10.5% 32% 1% -9.5%
all 87 -3.8% -13.0% 38% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 5% -9.7%
10% -21.3% 3% -18.4%
15% -28.9% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.9% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses33 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)87 / 90
History coverage522d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $46 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $83 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $44 +$2 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $43 +$1 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $80 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $10 −$2 -23%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $40 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $111 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $66 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $80 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $101 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $98 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $61 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $22 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $10 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $11 −$2 -20%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $5 $0 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $45 +$3 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $10 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $13 +$1 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $16 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $88 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 16 $83 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $4 $0 -2%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +26%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $157 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $139 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $169 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $82 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $80 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $5 $0 -2%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $7 $0 +5%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Apr 14 $1 $0 -15%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $39 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $73 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 12 $112 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $38 50m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 51m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $45 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $46 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $46 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $45 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $38 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $13 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $46 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $44 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $33 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $22 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $17 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 97¢ $43 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $41 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.14 · official $40.66 (match) · 364 history records