Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6159…a9cb world 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 339d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate33%27W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$14
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$16
sports 27% +$1
other 13% −$14
politics 7% −$25
economics 6% +$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +2.8% -7.0% 18% 9% -9.5%
≤30d 33 +1.8% -7.9% 48% 6% -9.0%
≤90d 46 +44.4% +30.7% 46% 7% -9.6%
all 81 +24.8% +12.9% 33% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.9% 5% -9.8%
10% +2.1% 2% -18.4%
15% -7.8% 1% -26.3%
20% -16.8% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

339d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses27 / 54
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage339d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $112 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $78 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $125 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $120 −$1 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $110 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $55 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $109 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $104 −$4 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $116 −$2 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $110 +$2 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $115 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $41 +$1 +3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 09 $104 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $103 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $24 +$3 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $227 +$9 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $95 +$2 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $95 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $68 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +7%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $189 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $94 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $86 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $92 +$3 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $94 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $151 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $71 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $277 −$1 -0%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 25 $73 −$1 -1%
Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $13 −$2 -12%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $44 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 20 $489 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $471 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $832 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 17 $334 −$24 -7%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $1,150 −$1 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $112 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $112 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $20 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $7 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $71 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $78 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $111 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $111 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $77 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $32 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $111 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $100 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.00 (match) · 348 history records