Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:12:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x615a…4a95 crypto 500 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate88%442W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days−$54
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +1.5% -8.1% 87% 2% -8.0%
≤30d 500 +0.3% -9.3% 88% 7% -9.4%
≤90d 500 +0.3% -9.3% 88% 7% -9.4%
all 500 +0.3% -9.3% 88% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 7% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 3% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses442 / 58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)500 / 500
History coverage21d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 500 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $27 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $27 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $31 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $28 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $28 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1010 history records