Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:12:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
61 0x615a…1c1c other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-4%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$5
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.7% -8.0% 80% 60% -13.0%
≤30d 5 +1.7% -8.0% 80% 60% -13.0%
≤90d 5 +1.7% -8.0% 80% 60% -13.0%
all 5 +1.7% -8.0% 80% 60% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 60% -13.0%
10% -16.8% 40% -21.3%
15% -24.9% 40% -28.9%
20% -32.2% 0% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$15 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $90 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $3 13h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $2 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.09 · official $18.09 (match) · 11 history records