Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:03:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
61 0x615d…bd5b sports 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,716 (+6%) realized +$6,047 · open −$4,331
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%23W / 28L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$537per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$364est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$987now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$4,260
other 4% +$1,385
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -9.9% -18.5% 45% 43% -4.1%
≤30d 51 -9.9% -18.5% 45% 43% -4.1%
≤90d 51 -9.9% -18.5% 45% 43% -4.1%
all 51 -9.9% -18.5% 45% 43% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 43% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 41% -13.2%
15% -33.4% 27% -21.6%
20% -40.0% 24% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$727) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$374 vs −$256 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$987
Realized+$6,047
Unrealized−$4,331
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses23 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$364
Open positions4
Markets (closed)51 / 55
History coverage6d
Avg bet$537
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka Naomi Osaka 84¢ 86¢ $851 $866 +$15 (+2%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Team Liquid 66¢ 69¢ $111 $117 +$6 (+5%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 54¢ $2,426 $2 −$2,424 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 76¢ $1,930 $1 −$1,928 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari (BO3) - CCT South Am Jun 29 $343 +$111 +32%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $321 −$315 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $145 −$144 -100%
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame Jun 28 $263 −$13 -5%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se Jun 27 $738 −$80 -11%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Jun 27 $337 −$281 -83%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $98 −$4 -4%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $556 +$1 +0%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $918 −$903 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $2,396 +$1,354 +56%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $1,384 +$658 +48%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $526 +$510 +97%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $539 +$334 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $1,082 −$37 -3%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $1,087 −$37 -3%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham Jun 26 $1,525 −$144 -10%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 26 $14 −$14 -99%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $236 −$232 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $312 +$81 +26%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch Jun 26 $123 +$231 +188%
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 25 $333 +$108 +32%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 25 $619 −$606 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $479 +$728 +152%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $753 +$1,304 +173%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 25 $664 −$657 -99%
Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team Liquid Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $24 −$24 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $79 +$21 +27%
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Julie&cie (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 25 $68 +$12 +18%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $395 +$439 +111%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1,114 −$1,099 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Oceane Dodin vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew Jun 24 $264 −$259 -98%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Jun 24 $132 −$130 -99%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic Jun 24 $190 −$186 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski Jun 24 $853 −$348 -41%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $562 −$14 -2%
Valorant: Contra vs LYON - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $45 +$15 +32%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER Jun 24 $46 +$18 +40%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Iryna Shymanovich vs Greet Minnen Jun 24 $731 −$727 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $929 +$1,102 +119%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $64 +$16 +26%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 23 $605 −$599 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $361 +$197 +55%
Sawangkaew vs. Stoiana: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 23 $47 −$47 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin Jun 23 $122 −$121 -99%
Targu Mures: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 23 $17 −$17 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katherine Sebov vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 23 $45 −$45 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif Jun 23 $605 +$425 +70%
Valorant: Joblife vs CGN Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $122 +$35 +29%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $161 +$81 +51%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso Jun 23 $78 −$76 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 76¢ $1,012 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 68¢ $70 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 72¢ $431 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 72¢ $81 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 72¢ $7 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 72¢ $10 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $922 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 64¢ $65 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 64¢ $241 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 62¢ $647 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 56¢ $344 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 44¢ $22 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 44¢ $22 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 44¢ $18 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 44¢ $22 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 44¢ $22 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 44¢ $22 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 44¢ $22 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 44¢ $8 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 44¢ $8 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 44¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 44¢ $9 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 44¢ $111 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 43¢ $116 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 30¢ $75 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 30¢ $16 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 17¢ $52 2h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 66¢ $113 4h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari (BO3) - CCT South Am BUY Patins da Ferrari 75¢ $343 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $986.88 · official $986.90 (match) · 149 history records