Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x615e…5295 crypto 478 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$14,543 (-202%) realized −$1,117 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%28W / 427L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day41.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$174
7 days−$39
14 days−$661
30 days−$1,432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-48.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -45.9% -51.0% 5% 5% -19.9%
≤30d 100 -84.8% -86.2% 2% 2% -82.1%
≤90d 455 -43.0% -48.5% 6% 6% -38.1%
all 455 -43.0% -48.5% 6% 6% -38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.5% 6% -38.1%
10% ← realistic here -53.4% 6% -44.1%
15% -57.9% 6% -49.5%
20% -62.0% 6% -54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -86% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$181 vs −$15 · ×12.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized−$1,117
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses28 / 427
Open positions23
Markets (closed)455 / 478
History coverage74d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 455 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $34 $40 +$6 (+18%)
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $41 $30 −$11 (-26%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-7%)
Will Solana reach $100 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $26 $20 −$7 (-25%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $9 $18 +$9 (+100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $4 $18 +$14 (+338%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $40 $14 −$26 (-65%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $27 $11 −$15 (-57%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+39%)
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 14? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-33%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+8%)
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 15? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Solana reach $110 in June? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Will Solana reach $130 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Solana reach $90 June 8-14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $22 $2 −$20 (-91%)
Will Solana reach $120 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-44%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-58%)
Will Solana reach $80 June 8-14? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-87%)
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $70 on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$279 +1091%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 13? Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 12? Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 11? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 9? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 8? Jun 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8? Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 9? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 8? Jun 09 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 8? Jun 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 7? Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 5? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 5? Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $18 −$14 -79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 02 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 1? Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on May 31? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 13m
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 16m
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17m
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $27 23m
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 25m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 36m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 36m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 36m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 37m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 37m
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 37m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 40m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 40m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 40m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 41m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 41m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 41m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 41m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 41m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 41m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 41m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 41m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 41m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 41m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 41m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 41m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 41m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 41m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 41m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.00 · official $236.62 (match) · 3500 history records