Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:12:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
61 0x6160…405a crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$368 (+9%) realized +$368 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$215
7 days−$215
14 days−$215
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$215
politics 6% −$61
other 1% +$23
sports 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -33.9% -40.2% 40% 40% -10.9%
≤30d 15 -33.9% -40.2% 40% 40% -10.9%
≤90d 15 -33.9% -40.2% 40% 40% -10.9%
all 20 -26.2% -33.2% 45% 45% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.2% 45% -11.4%
10% -39.6% 40% -19.9%
15% -45.5% 30% -27.6%
20% -50.8% 20% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$135 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$368
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage226d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $210 +$288 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $204 −$199 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $130 +$92 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $409 +$179 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $208 −$172 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $147 −$142 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1,024 +$267 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $205 +$94 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $414 +$277 +67%
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 14? Nov 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Nov 13 $169 −$33 -20%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 11 $61 +$9 +14%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $38 +$23 +61%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $29 +$9 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $335 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $210 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $101 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $27 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $204 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $204 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $147 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $174 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1,117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $224 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records