Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x616d…24df crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,073 (-22%) realized −$1,228 · open +$155
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%5W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day72.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,073
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-49.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -43.7% -49.0% 25% 25% -33.5%
≤30d 20 -43.7% -49.0% 25% 25% -33.5%
≤90d 20 -43.7% -49.0% 25% 25% -33.5%
all 20 -43.7% -49.0% 25% 25% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.0% 25% -33.5%
10% ← realistic here -53.9% 20% -39.9%
15% -58.4% 20% -45.7%
20% -62.4% 20% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$328 vs −$191 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$255
Realized−$1,228
Unrealized+$155
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses5 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day72.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 39¢ 100¢ $100 $255 +$155 (+155%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $239 −$225 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 27 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $267 −$250 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 27 $209 −$86 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $239 −$225 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $103 +$55 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $213 −$213 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $320 −$207 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $751 +$1,125 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $623 −$309 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $526 −$526 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $208 +$369 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $132 −$125 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $15 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $12 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $42 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $64 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $27 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $27 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $107 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $74 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $32 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $29 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $78 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $122 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $21 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $86 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $55 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $52 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.13 · official $150.41 · 82 history records