Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:52:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
61 0x616f…9f5a crypto 2028 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,216 (-13%) realized −$1,218 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%1158W / 947L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day39.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$537
7 days−$492
14 days−$315
30 days−$553
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$212
sports 0% +$8
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 488 -34.5% -40.7% 33% 33% -42.7%
≤30d 1314 -7.8% -16.6% 51% 51% -18.4%
≤90d 2105 -6.9% -15.8% 55% 53% -19.6%
all 2105 -6.9% -15.8% 55% 53% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 53% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 47% -27.3%
15% -31.2% 40% -34.3%
20% -37.9% 34% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$1,218
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses1158 / 947
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2105 / 2028
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day39.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 44¢ 56¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $8 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $66 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.09 · official $7.73 · 3500 history records