Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6172…40ca sports 49 markets active 3d ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$233 (-6%) realized −$233 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%21W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$384
14 days−$384
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$234
sports 24% +$90
politics 21% −$77
crypto 5% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -13.8% -22.0% 47% 47% -24.6%
≤30d 21 -19.8% -27.4% 43% 43% -15.2%
≤90d 21 -19.8% -27.4% 43% 43% -15.2%
all 48 -4.6% -13.7% 44% 44% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 44% -16.0%
10% -21.9% 44% -24.0%
15% -29.5% 44% -31.4%
20% -36.4% 40% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$64 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$233
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses21 / 27
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage189d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $229 −$225 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $151 −$150 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $223 +$208 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $207 +$118 +57%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $236 +$258 +109%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $276 −$40 -14%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $318 −$314 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $25 +$16 +63%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $25 +$9 +36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $225 +$98 +44%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $99 −$99 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $125 +$165 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $298 +$178 +60%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 18 $126 −$126 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Dec 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Putin" or "Zelenskyy" while addressing the nation on D Dec 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while addressing the nation on De Dec 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Dec 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Clippers Dec 16 $16 +$29 +183%
Raptors vs. Heat Dec 16 $26 +$50 +191%
Pistons vs. Celtics Dec 16 $27 +$32 +120%
Mavericks vs. Jazz Dec 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Vikings vs. Cowboys Dec 15 $25 +$100 +400%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Lakers vs. Suns Dec 15 $26 +$24 +90%
Pelicans vs. Bulls Dec 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bucks vs. Nets Dec 14 $26 −$26 -100%
76ers vs. Hawks Dec 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Flames vs. Kings Dec 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Canadiens vs. Rangers Dec 14 $15 +$14 +94%
Knicks vs. Magic Dec 14 $25 +$14 +56%
Will Oxford United FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $20 −$19 -94%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) Dec 13 $20 +$15 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Dec 13 $20 +$22 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Dec 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Dec 13 $35 +$62 +178%
Kraken vs. Utah Dec 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bulls vs. Hornets Dec 13 $29 +$21 +71%
Will Auckland FC win on 2025-12-12? Dec 12 $13 +$16 +120%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $229 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 30¢ $51 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $223 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 25¢ $102 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $207 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $15 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $101 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $236 5d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 60¢ $236 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $318 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $9 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 99¢ $41 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $25 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 96¢ $34 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 70¢ $25 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $225 7d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 68¢ $253 16d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 16d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 67¢ $14 16d
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh BUY Scotland 44¢ $99 16d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 3¢ $10 18d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Gujarat Titans 98¢ $290 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records