Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:36:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
61 0x6174…0ad6 politics 116 markets active 1d ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$146
politics 39% −$9
sports 5% −$57
crypto 4% −$1
economics 2% $0
world 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 -0.7% -10.2% 7% 5% -10.4%
all 116 -3.8% -12.9% 8% 6% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 6% -10.6%
10% -21.3% 4% -19.1%
15% -28.9% 3% -26.9%
20% -35.9% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$3 · ×3.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 107
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)116 / 116
History coverage111d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 116 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $18 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $149 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $164 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $180 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $155 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $160 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $24 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $109 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $247 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $107 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $248 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $363 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $140 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $141 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $363 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $112 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $302 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 20 $150 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 20 $121 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $130 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $134 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $148 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $116 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $265 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $235 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $118 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $115 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $122 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $145 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $153 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $281 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $275 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $271 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $148 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $302 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $142 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $809 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $152 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $142 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $143 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $281 −$137 -49%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 29 $137 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $144 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $120 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $232 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $109 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 34h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 3d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $15 6d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 11d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 16d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 16d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 16d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 17d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 17d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 18d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $109 18d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $109 20d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $105 20d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $105 20d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $107 20d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $107 21d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $140 21d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $140 21d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $105 23d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $105 24d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $140 24d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $140 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 341 history records