Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:26:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
61 0x6175…bf94 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$99 (+4%) realized +$97 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate68%13W / 6L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Kalshi-fit4%portable
Net worth$746now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$81
crypto 4% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +35.2% +22.4% 68% 32% -3.8%
≤30d 19 +35.2% +22.4% 68% 32% -3.8%
≤90d 19 +35.2% +22.4% 68% 32% -3.8%
all 19 +35.2% +22.4% 68% 32% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.4% 32% -3.8%
10% +10.7% 21% -13.0%
15% -0.0% 21% -21.4%
20% -9.8% 21% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$746
Realized+$97
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses13 / 6
Open positions13
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage6d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 26 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Saudi Arabia finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $60 +$3 +5%
Will Ghana go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 25 $9 +$29 +337%
Will Ecuador finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 25 $7 +$5 +70%
Will Portugal go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 25 $86 +$6 +7%
Will Sweden finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 25 $38 −$34 -91%
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G Jun 25 $8 +$42 +525%
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 24 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 24 $7 +$1 +16%
Will Canada go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 24 $26 +$1 +4%
Will Switzerland finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G Jun 24 $18 +$32 +170%
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro Jun 24 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Scotland finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 23 $24 −$22 -92%
Will Netherlands be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2 Jun 23 $99 +$10 +10%
Will South Korea finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 21 $70 +$1 +1%
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Jun 21 $845 +$34 +4%
Will Ivory Coast go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 21 $128 −$3 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio BUY Yes 44¢ $31 1h
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio BUY Yes 42¢ $54 1h
Will Adidas be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champ BUY No 49¢ $94 1h
Will Saudi Arabia finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 71¢ $12 11h
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio BUY Yes 44¢ $13 11h
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio BUY Yes 44¢ $6 11h
Will Ghana go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL Yes 44¢ $38 12h
Will Ecuador finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL Yes 11¢ $8 13h
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio BUY Yes 45¢ $32 15h
Will Ecuador finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL Yes 11¢ $2 16h
Will Ecuador finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL Yes 11¢ $2 16h
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio BUY Yes 45¢ $14 20h
Will Portugal go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL Yes 75¢ $65 22h
Will Portugal go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL Yes 75¢ $22 24h
Will Sweden finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 19¢ $3 24h
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio BUY Yes 41¢ $39 24h
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio BUY Yes 45¢ $150 36h
Will Canada go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 96¢ $26 36h
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 94¢ $16 37h
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro BUY Yes 33¢ $16 37h
Will Adidas be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champ BUY No 57¢ $100 42h
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio BUY No 49¢ $54 42h
Will Capelli be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Cham BUY No 100¢ $1 42h
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio BUY No 48¢ $6 42h
Will Portugal go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL Yes 74¢ $5 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 12¢ $0 2d
Will Saudi Arabia finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 69¢ $47 2d
Will Ecuador finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes $7 2d
Will Sweden finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 17¢ $4 2d
Will Ghana go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $745.71 · official $745.71 (match) · 82 history records