Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
61 0x6178…2e0a weather 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+0%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%182W / 4L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$31
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 38 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 142 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 186 +0.3% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×29.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1360.28 per $1 lost it wins $1360.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses182 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)186 / 187
History coverage121d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $236 $236 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? Jun 22 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 19? Jun 22 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $178 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $216 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $132 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $231 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $222 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $240 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 8? Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 08 $234 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 4? Jun 05 $241 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $233 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $219 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 1? Jun 02 $227 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 31? Jun 01 $126 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on May 31? Jun 01 $229 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 29? May 29 $220 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on May 28? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 27? May 28 $232 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on May 25? May 26 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on May 23? May 24 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 21? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 20? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on May 17? May 21 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 106-107°F on May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ma May 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 17? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 16? May 17 $126 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on May 16? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on May 15? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 55°F or below on May 14? May 14 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $236 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $125 12h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $7 45h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $92 45h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $104 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $167 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $48 6d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $51 9d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 10d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $16 10d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $33 11d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $182 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $132 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $231 12d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $11 13d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $222 14d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $240 14d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $47 15d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $234 16d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $89 17d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $93 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.24 · official $236.24 (match) · 399 history records