Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:09:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
61 0x6178…eb20 crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 550d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%42W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$6
crypto 8% +$1
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 1% −$6
world 1% −$11
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 54 -2.4% -11.7% 78% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

550d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses42 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage550d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 05 $56 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? Apr 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 04 $37 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Feb 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Dec 03 $51 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Nov 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? Sep 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 02 $19 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 02 $42 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Jul 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will US leave NATO by June 30? Jul 02 $26 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 3 May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 02 $4 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 02 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 20 $6,035 −$6 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Mar 22 $23 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Mar 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 11 $22 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 by February 28 2025? 1 Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Francois-Philippe Champagne be the next leader of the Canadian Li Feb 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $19 28d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? BUY No 100¢ $43 30d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $56 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $16 91d
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $40 92d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $17 121d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $37 121d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $10 148d
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $19 149d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 150d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $11 181d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $17 181d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $39 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $51 211d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $18 240d
Will Solana reach $300 in October? BUY No 100¢ $32 242d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 100¢ $20 272d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $30 273d
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? BUY No 100¢ $7 300d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $14 301d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $40 302d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 100¢ $6 332d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $19 333d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $42 334d
Will US leave NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $26 363d
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 364d
Ethereum all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 394d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? BUY No 100¢ $14 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.77 · official $54.78 (match) · 111 history records