Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:42:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
61 0x617a…8c79 weather 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+5%) realized +$70 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate54%48W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$94
14 days+$83
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% +$88
crypto 6% −$21
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +13.5% +2.7% 84% 74% +7.7%
≤30d 53 +13.3% +2.5% 68% 58% -1.9%
≤90d 89 -6.0% -15.0% 54% 47% -4.0%
all 89 -6.0% -15.0% 54% 47% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 47% -4.0%
10% -23.1% 31% -13.2%
15% -30.5% 19% -21.6%
20% -37.3% 15% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses48 / 41
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage87d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? No 73¢ 74¢ $124 $125 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? No 82¢ 90¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $110 +$18 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $26 +$9 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $95 +$15 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $19 +$6 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $54 +$20 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$2 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 +$8 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$7 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 15 $4 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $64 +$9 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$7 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $52 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $57 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 +$10 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $46 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 −$9 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $11 +$26 +244%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $21 +$5 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $86 −$64 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $53 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $29 −$5 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $33 +$11 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $11 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $21 +$19 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $21 +$7 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 4? Jun 03 $10 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 4? Jun 03 $10 +$3 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $14 −$14 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $10 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $9 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 73¢ $126 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $127 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 82¢ $35 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 86¢ $110 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $110 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 75¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 75¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $82 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $74 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 69¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 69¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $28 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 77¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 72¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.44 · official $163.44 (match) · 291 history records