Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:12:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6182…0633 crypto 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+1%) realized +$34 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate38%36W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days−$159
14 days−$159
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$80
sports 27% −$54
crypto 12% −$3
world 9% −$15
weather 9% +$3
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -85.1% -86.5% 8% 8% -26.0%
≤30d 39 -85.1% -86.5% 8% 8% -26.0%
≤90d 45 -73.5% -76.1% 16% 9% -13.8%
all 96 -3.5% -12.7% 38% 28% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 28% -8.8%
10% -21.1% 25% -17.5%
15% -28.7% 24% -25.5%
20% -35.7% 24% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late -69% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$458
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses36 / 60
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage147d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky Las Vegas Aces 80¢ 72¢ $90 $81 −$9 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty Jun 28 $20 −$2 -10%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings Jun 28 $71 −$3 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $321 +$56 +18%
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 26 $82 +$43 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Grizzlies Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Lakers vs. Pacers Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35.0 and 35.5 million views on d Jun 26 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (Februa Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 32 million views on day 3 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 38 and 40 million views on day 3 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 25 $38 −$38 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics Jun 25 $101 +$26 +26%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 29 $604 +$80 +13%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 01 $52 −$6 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 1? Apr 01 $53 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on April 1? Apr 01 $51 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on Mar Mar 31 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on March 31? Mar 31 $49 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Mar 29 $52 −$4 -7%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 30, 2026? Mar 28 $59 −$6 -11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 28 $34 +$2 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Mar 28 $14 −$1 -8%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 26 $3 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty SELL Las Vegas Aces 40¢ $18 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings SELL Minnesota Lynx 60¢ $68 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $161 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $161 25h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky BUY Las Vegas Aces 80¢ $91 27h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings BUY Minnesota Lynx 61¢ $71 27h
Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty BUY Las Vegas Aces 42¢ $20 39h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 63¢ $35 3d
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 60¢ $3 3d
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 65¢ $82 3d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics SELL Minnesota Lynx 100¢ $127 3d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Minnesota Lynx 79¢ $101 3d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? SELL No 5¢ $275 59d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 8¢ $149 59d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 7¢ $55 59d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 7¢ $18 59d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 7¢ $0 59d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 7¢ $21 59d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 7¢ $165 59d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? SELL No 2¢ $180 60d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? SELL No 2¢ $109 60d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? SELL No 3¢ $121 60d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 1¢ $13 60d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 1¢ $84 60d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 1¢ $97 60d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 8¢ $46 87d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 9¢ $52 87d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 1? SELL No 94¢ $52 87d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 1? BUY No 96¢ $53 87d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on April 1? SELL Yes 99¢ $53 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $457.65 · official $457.65 (match) · 226 history records