Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:09:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6185…2965 sports 286 markets active 3h ago coverage 68d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$112,268 (+9%) realized +$112,259 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%144W / 229L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,494per market
Trades / day48.6pace
Fees−$13,218est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$82,339
other 17% +$22,158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -83.3% -84.9% 4% 3% -95.9%
≤30d 255 -28.8% -35.6% 34% 30% -44.0%
≤90d 373 -21.7% -29.2% 39% 36% -32.1%
all 373 -21.7% -29.2% 39% 36% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.2% 36% -32.1%
10% -36.0% 32% -38.6%
15% ← realistic here -42.1% 28% -44.5%
20% -47.8% 22% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$4,988) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,546 vs −$4,210 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized+$112,259
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses144 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$13,218
Open positions1
Markets (closed)373 / 286
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$4,494
Trades / day48.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 59¢ 62¢ $150 $159 +$9 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 207 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-20? Jun 17 $18,791 −$18,791 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-14? Jun 17 $7,460 −$7,460 -100%
Sharks vs. Canadiens Jun 17 $2,520 −$2,520 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-13? Jun 17 $4,865 −$4,865 -100%
Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakia Jun 17 $821 −$821 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24? Jun 17 $16,523 −$16,523 -100%
Canucks vs. Avalanche Jun 17 $269 −$269 -100%
Panthers vs. Rangers Jun 17 $736 −$736 -100%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-02-24? Jun 17 $2,828 −$2,828 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-03-19? Jun 17 $2,437 −$2,437 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? Jun 17 $151 −$151 -100%
Blues vs. Hurricanes Jun 17 $1,253 −$1,253 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-02-20? Jun 17 $4,928 −$4,928 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Jun 17 $40,656 −$40,661 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? Jun 17 $4,823 −$4,823 -100%
Bruins vs. Flyers Jun 17 $223 −$223 -100%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-03-22? Jun 17 $16,770 −$16,770 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,843 −$2,843 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-21? Jun 17 $11,088 −$11,088 -100%
Blues vs. Kings Jun 17 $221 −$221 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-12? Jun 17 $2,190 −$2,190 -100%
Will AZ win on 2026-02-26? Jun 17 $1,290 −$1,290 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-03-01? Jun 17 $27,792 −$27,792 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-14? Jun 17 $674 −$674 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Jun 17 $9,800 −$9,800 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17? Jun 17 $4,772 −$4,772 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-19? Jun 17 $1,550 −$1,550 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? Jun 17 $138 −$138 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw? Jun 17 $13,970 −$13,970 -100%
Kraken vs. Blue Jackets Jun 17 $783 −$783 -100%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $4,845 −$4,845 -100%
Heat vs. 76ers Jun 17 $2,521 −$2,521 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Jun 17 $11,331 −$11,331 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-03-18? Jun 17 $2,475 −$2,475 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-19? Jun 17 $12,504 −$12,504 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-22? Jun 17 $4,048 −$4,048 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? Jun 17 $37,501 −$37,501 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-22? Jun 17 $5,100 −$5,100 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-18? Jun 17 $84 −$84 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Jun 17 $4,924 −$4,924 -100%
Rangers vs. Jets Jun 17 $2,524 −$2,524 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Jun 17 $40,831 −$40,831 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-21? Jun 17 $4,492 −$4,492 -100%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-09? Jun 17 $1,268 −$1,268 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-12? Jun 17 $1,264 −$1,264 -100%
Kraken vs. Canucks Jun 17 $720 −$720 -100%
Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $189 −$189 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Jun 17 $5,096 −$5,096 -100%
Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-02-26? Jun 17 $2,508 −$2,508 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Rangers Jun 17 $730 −$730 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 41¢ $4 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $631 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $1 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $10 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $65 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $51 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $1 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $1 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $194 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $3 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $5 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $33 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $3 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $1 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $53 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $3 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $1 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $13 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $1 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $5 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $1 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $67 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $67 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $25 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $1 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $6 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $1 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $63 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $2 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.90 · official $158.90 (match) · 3500 history records