Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:35:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

61
0x6189…d6eb
weather · 642 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$11,835 -41%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12,646 · open −$866
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$884
Realized−$12,646
Unrealized−$866
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses4 / 176
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions375
Markets (closed)180 / 642
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1765.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 375 History 180 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12,646
7 days−$12,646
14 days−$12,646
30 days−$12,646
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 88¢ 89¢ $176 $178 +$2 (+1%)
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $90 $95 +$5 (+6%)
Will "The Witness" be the top global Netflix show this week? Yes 5¢ 96¢ $2 $53 +$51 (+2022%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? Yes 17¢ 100¢ $7 $41 +$35 (+500%)
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Yes 25¢ 62¢ $11 $27 +$16 (+148%)
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 100¢ 99¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? Yes 35¢ 18¢ $35 $18 −$16 (-47%)
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+58%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 12? No 95¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 12? Yes 9¢ 94¢ $1 $11 +$10 (+932%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? Yes 20¢ 28¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on June 12? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 13? No 100¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 12? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 13? No 99¢ 98¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $210-$215 on the final day of trading of t Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $202 −$201 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $205 −$184 -90%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $200-$205 on the final day of trading of t Jun 12 $0 $0 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $92 −$92 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $430 −$312 -73%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$4 -28%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $128 −$128 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 36°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $76 −$74 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $90 −$89 -99%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $607 −$513 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $422 −$372 -88%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $391 −$304 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -92%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $320 −$279 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -34%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $646 −$638 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $74 −$73 -99%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada? Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $29 −$8 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 12 $36 −$26 -72%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $102 −$94 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$13 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June Jun 12 $98 −$88 -90%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $604 −$519 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $85 −$76 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$10 -66%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 12 $139 −$96 -70%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-Jun Jun 12 $139 −$103 -74%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 12 $38 −$27 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 12 $77 −$68 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$12 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 −$21 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 56% −$7,181
tech 14% −$2,444
other 9% −$798
finance 8% −$2,008
politics 6% +$2
crypto 3% −$780
world 2% −$227
sports 1% −$94
culture 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June BUY No 100¢ $10 3m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 65¢ $7 3m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 100¢ $10 3m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 99¢ $10 3m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $10 3m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June BUY No 100¢ $10 3m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY No 93¢ $9 3m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 77¢ $8 3m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 64¢ $6 3m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 78¢ $8 11m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY No 97¢ $10 11m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $10 11m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June BUY No 100¢ $10 11m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 61¢ $6 11m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 62¢ $6 11m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 99¢ $10 11m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 100¢ $10 11m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June BUY No 100¢ $10 11m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $10 12m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 58¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June BUY No 100¢ $10 12m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 99¢ $10 12m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 78¢ $8 12m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY No 97¢ $10 12m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 100¢ $10 12m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 66¢ $7 12m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June BUY No 100¢ $10 12m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June BUY No 100¢ $10 14m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 59¢ $6 14m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 78¢ $8 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-66.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 -63.0% -66.5% 2% 2% -88.0%
≤30d 180 -63.0% -66.5% 2% 2% -88.0%
≤90d 180 -63.0% -66.5% 2% 2% -88.0%
all 180 -63.0% -66.5% 2% 2% -88.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1765.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -66.5% 2% -88.0%
10% ← realistic here -69.7% 2% -89.1%
15% -72.6% 2% -90.2%
20% -75.3% 2% -91.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $883.90 · official $872.07 · 3500 history records