trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -15.3% | -23.4% | 50% | 50% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +4.4% | -5.5% | 57% | 57% | +0.5% |
| ≤90d | 18 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 61% | 50% | -8.8% |
| all | 22 | -18.1% | -25.9% | 50% | 41% | -27.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -25.9% | 41% | -27.5% |
| 10% | -33.0% | 41% | -34.4% |
| 15% | -39.5% | 32% | -40.7% |
| 20% | -45.4% | 27% | -46.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 10¢ | 12¢ | $50 | $60 | +$10 (+21%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 14¢ | 15¢ | $39 | $41 | +$2 (+5%) |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 8¢ | 9¢ | $31 | $34 | +$3 (+9%) |
| Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 38¢ | 38¢ | $20 | $20 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $9 | $7 | −$2 (-19%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | Jun 25 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? | Jun 25 | $20 | +$7 | +34% |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? | Jun 24 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | Jun 23 | $51 | −$50 | -99% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | Jun 23 | $51 | −$50 | -99% |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 23 | $10 | +$14 | +134% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 22 | $122 | +$67 | +55% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $79 | +$43 | +55% |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $41 | +$30 | +73% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $5 | +$4 | +93% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $30 | +$14 | +48% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $15 | +$16 | +105% |
| Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $8 | −$8 | -98% |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 12 | $12 | −$4 | -35% |
| Enhanced Games: Hafthor Bjornsson Heaviest Deadlift Over 510 Kg? | May 25 | $54 | −$54 | -100% |
| Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? | May 24 | $53 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $50B at market close on IPO day? | May 18 | $50 | +$3 | +6% |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa | Apr 08 | $9 | +$3 | +32% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET | Mar 05 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Nov 15 | $53 | −$53 | -100% |
| Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Nov 15 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-27? | Nov 15 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |