Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:38:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
61 0x6190…5d90 sports 427 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,257 (-3%) realized −$2,257 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%247W / 180L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$826est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$226
7 days+$309
14 days−$2,324
30 days−$1,337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$4,679
other 28% +$1,707
world 1% +$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +11.5% +0.9% 65% 65% +1.3%
≤30d 150 -1.3% -10.7% 60% 59% -13.2%
≤90d 427 -2.3% -11.6% 58% 57% -12.1%
all 427 -2.3% -11.6% 58% 57% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 57% -12.1%
10% -20.0% 50% -20.5%
15% -27.8% 41% -28.2%
20% -34.8% 31% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$156 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,257
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses247 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$826
Open positions0
Markets (closed)427 / 427
History coverage65d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 427 Trades
no open positions (105 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $102 +$91 +89%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $55 +$47 +86%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $163 +$116 +71%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $38 −$37 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $101 +$46 +45%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $71 +$81 +114%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $56 −$55 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $46 +$44 +97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $199 +$39 +20%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $123 −$77 -63%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $252 +$69 +28%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $161 +$91 +57%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $135 +$26 +19%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) Jun 18 $99 +$36 +36%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $225 −$223 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $98 +$127 +129%
ITF Tulsa: Maximus Dussault vs Ozan Baris Jun 18 $122 −$120 -98%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $77 −$76 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $55 +$22 +40%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $55 −$54 -98%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $55 +$31 +57%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 +$28 +113%
Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots Jun 16 $79 +$71 +90%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Set Handicap: Lamens (-1.5) vs Badosa (+1.5) Jun 16 $56 −$55 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $111 +$80 +71%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $201 −$198 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $272 −$269 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $164 +$108 +66%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $511 −$320 -63%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $314 +$198 +63%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $285 +$45 +16%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $230 +$57 +25%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $198 +$32 +16%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 11 $1,184 −$594 -50%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $494 −$30 -6%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 11 $701 +$121 +17%
Set Handicap: Tabur (-1.5) vs Faurel (+1.5) Jun 11 $102 +$101 +99%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Clement Tabur Jun 11 $342 +$156 +46%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $439 −$433 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $655 +$87 +13%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Jun 10 $309 −$306 -99%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 10 $736 −$428 -58%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 10 $432 +$223 +52%
ITF Los Angeles: Sasha Rozin vs Oliver Bonding Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $1,004 −$990 -99%
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) Jun 10 $263 −$260 -99%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 10 $222 +$43 +20%
Ilkley: Hamish Stewart vs Leandro Riedi Jun 10 $98 +$59 +60%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $204 +$167 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $192 36m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 52¢ $102 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva SELL Alina Charaeva 100¢ $102 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 53¢ $55 2h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 99¢ $280 3h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 57¢ $163 4h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 43¢ $38 4h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa SELL Linda Noskova 97¢ $147 4h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Linda Noskova 66¢ $101 5h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $152 5h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 46¢ $71 6h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 31¢ $56 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $90 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $238 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $46 15h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 22¢ $46 15h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 83¢ $199 15h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $123 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $321 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 78¢ $252 17h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Under 92¢ $252 17h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $161 18h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Juan Estevez 100¢ $161 18h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Juan Estevez 83¢ $135 19h
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $135 19h
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 73¢ $99 19h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $225 20h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $225 20h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $98 21h
ITF Tulsa: Maximus Dussault vs Ozan Baris BUY Ozan Baris 36¢ $122 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 828 history records