Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:10:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

61
0x6191…9e5e
weather · 1613 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$85 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$86 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$571
Realized+$86
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1534 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions41
Markets (closed)1572 / 1613
History coverage22d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day88.1
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 41 History 1572 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$30
14 days−$0
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $140 $140 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 13? No 100¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 88°F or higher on June Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on June Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 92% +$64
other 8% +$16
sports 0% +$5
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $140 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 802 -1.6% -10.9% 96% 6% -9.9%
≤30d 1572 +1.4% -8.2% 98% 5% -9.2%
≤90d 1572 +1.4% -8.2% 98% 5% -9.2%
all 1572 +1.4% -8.2% 98% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover88.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 5% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 2% -17.9%
15% -25.0% 1% -25.8%
20% -32.4% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $570.80 · official $570.85 (match) · 3500 history records