Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:41:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
61 0x6195…b9e3 sports 219 markets active 2h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21,316 (+11%) realized +$21,312 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%103W / 115L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$898per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1,716est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,723now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,880
7 days+$4,132
14 days+$9,934
30 days+$11,190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$6,035
other 10% +$13,839
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -23.0% -30.3% 40% 40% +24.6%
≤30d 49 +9.8% -0.6% 49% 49% +12.4%
≤90d 170 -26.7% -33.6% 35% 35% -10.6%
all 218 -3.3% -12.5% 47% 47% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 47% -0.3%
10% -20.9% 47% -9.8%
15% -28.5% 46% -18.5%
20% -35.5% 38% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,410) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$962 vs −$689 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$1,723
Realized+$21,312
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses103 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,716
Open positions1
Markets (closed)218 / 219
History coverage180d
Avg bet$898
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Philadelphia Phillies 59¢ 60¢ $1,719 $1,723 +$4 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 23 $1,164 +$846 +73%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,722 +$3,228 +119%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,702 −$1,666 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 22 $1,929 +$1,471 +76%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $193 −$190 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $188 +$242 +129%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $1,177 −$1,161 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $841 +$724 +86%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 19 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $23 −$23 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $1,002 +$733 +73%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 −$8 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,206 +$3,708 +307%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $806 −$786 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $139 +$186 +134%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $129 −$127 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $181 +$299 +165%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $209 −$205 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $162 −$158 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,758 +$2,279 +83%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 10 $30 +$18 +60%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $2,640 +$2,460 +93%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 09 $73 +$192 +262%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2,146 −$2,016 -94%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $49 −$48 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $26 +$25 +97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 06 $12 −$12 -98%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire Jun 06 $60 +$43 +72%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,363 +$2,687 +197%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $3,545 −$1,038 -29%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $3,041 +$2,051 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $190 +$315 +165%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 04 $2,501 +$2,243 +90%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $78 −$46 -59%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $3,228 −$3,228 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $835 −$816 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $2,011 +$1,931 +96%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $2,811 −$2,776 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $2,318 −$2,318 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $91 +$39 +44%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 25 $2,514 +$1,996 +79%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $92 +$68 +73%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $71 +$188 +262%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $76 −$67 -87%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 24 $56 +$40 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $664 2h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 59¢ $4 2h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 59¢ $1,072 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 58¢ $401 23h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $1 24h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $1 24h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $215 24h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $1 24h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $33 24h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $16 24h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $494 24h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,702 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $2,722 24h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 44¢ $141 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $5 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $47 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $1,929 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $1,177 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 43¢ $188 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $23 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 53¢ $841 4d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $1,002 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $806 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,206 7d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 42¢ $139 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,722.72 · official $1,722.72 (match) · 495 history records