Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:15:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6196…1a64 sports 1035 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,066 (+4%) realized +$3,070 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%584W / 446L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$352est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$117
7 days−$66
14 days+$3
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$3,639
other 13% −$748
world 0% −$123
crypto 0% −$115
culture 0% −$16
politics 0% −$19
finance 0% −$5
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -8.7% -17.4% 53% 53% -12.0%
≤30d 211 -3.2% -12.4% 55% 54% -10.5%
≤90d 761 -5.4% -14.4% 54% 52% -8.1%
all 1030 -2.1% -11.4% 57% 55% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 55% -6.1%
10% -19.9% 51% -15.1%
15% -27.7% 42% -23.3%
20% -34.7% 32% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$43 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$3,070
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses584 / 446
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$352
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1030 / 1035
History coverage144d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1030 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 47¢ 56¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+18%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $81 +$46 +57%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $66 +$26 +40%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$33 +82%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $15 +$15 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$26 +44%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$6 +108%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $91 +$63 +70%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $71 −$26 -37%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $20 +$21 +105%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $46 +$36 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $41 +$31 +76%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $86 +$82 +95%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $141 +$19 +13%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $35 +$10 +29%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $121 −$115 -95%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $40 +$19 +47%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $30 +$26 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $97 +$27 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $162 −$135 -83%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $40 +$22 +55%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $107 +$119 +112%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $56 −$31 -55%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $71 +$31 +44%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $25 +$17 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 47¢ $15 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $61 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $11 6h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 13h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $81 15h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 15h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 72¢ $50 23h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 29h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $66 39h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 39h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 39h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 52¢ $20 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $25 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $20 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $15 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $25 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $32 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.72 · official $95.76 (match) · 2407 history records