Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:37:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
61 0x619a…036a other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$60 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$11
sports 12% −$50
crypto 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 50% -4.9%
≤30d 6 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 50% -4.9%
≤90d 6 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 50% -4.9%
all 6 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 50% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 50% -4.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 50% -14.0%
15% -30.2% 17% -22.3%
20% -37.0% 17% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,111
Realized+$60
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)6 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 95¢ 95¢ $925 $926 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 30¢ 38¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+28%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 10¢ 41¢ $5 $20 +$15 (+310%)
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 +$11 +30%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $6 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $7 −$1 -16%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $65 −$30 -46%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 +$16 +31%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 38¢ $18 4m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $936 15m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $102 16m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 31m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 68¢ $78 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $41 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 57¢ $17 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 28¢ $35 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $55 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 19h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $49 20h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $16 20h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $50 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,110.71 · official $1,110.71 (match) · 23 history records