Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:40:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
61 0x619a…926b other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$403 (+68%) realized +$405 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip
Net edge+46%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$451
14 days+$451
30 days+$451
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$250
sports 38% +$229
world 5% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+51.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +67.3% +51.4% 65% 65% +72.1%
≤30d 17 +67.3% +51.4% 65% 65% +72.1%
≤90d 17 +67.3% +51.4% 65% 65% +72.1%
all 17 +67.3% +51.4% 65% 65% +72.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +51.4% 65% +72.1%
10% +36.9% 65% +55.7%
15% +23.7% 65% +40.6%
20% +11.6% 59% +26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +90% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt +90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +127% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$21 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.62 per $1 lost it wins $4.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$405
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage8d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$52 +129%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$19 -90%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$100 +324%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$29 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$69 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$76 +250%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$22 +54%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 +$113 +276%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$43 +106%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$24 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $22 +$9 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 26h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 41h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 41h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 41h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $130 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $22 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.19 · official $88.19 (match) · 37 history records