Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:52:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
61 0x619d…5b81 crypto 62 markets active 3h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$84 (+3%) realized +$84 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%29W / 30L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$79
14 days−$79
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 75% +$113
other 14% −$104
world 6% +$60
crypto 2% −$6
sports 2% +$29
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -18.5% -26.3% 29% 29% -26.8%
≤30d 14 -18.5% -26.3% 29% 29% -26.8%
≤90d 21 -9.0% -17.6% 33% 29% -7.4%
all 59 -1.3% -10.7% 49% 47% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 47% -5.6%
10% -19.2% 37% -14.6%
15% -27.0% 29% -22.9%
20% -34.2% 24% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses29 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)59 / 62
History coverage105d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway leading at halftime? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$52 +344%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $30 −$29 -99%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $14 −$2 -14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$3 -18%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +62%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $58 −$57 -99%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $45 +$25 +56%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $41 −$13 -33%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $84 +$37 +43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 17 $115 −$5 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 17 $538 +$125 +23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 17 $35 −$34 -97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 31 $65 +$7 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 30 $134 −$14 -10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Mar 23 $40 −$11 -27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 23 $933 +$51 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 17 $1 +$2 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 17 $1 +$1 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 17 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 17 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 16 $2 $0 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 16 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 15 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 15 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 12 $40 +$9 +23%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 11 $13 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 11 $29 −$14 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 08 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 08 $1 $0 +26%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? Mar 08 $20 +$5 +27%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 08 $45 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 08 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 07 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 2h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 24h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 25h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 26h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 29h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $13 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 2d
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 2d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 3d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 26¢ $17 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? SELL No 54¢ $110 60d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? BUY No 53¢ $20 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.26 · official $36.26 (match) · 166 history records