Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:52:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x619d…b31c crypto 808 markets active 0h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$52 (-1%) realized −$47 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate39%314W / 489L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days+$26
14 days+$25
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$77
crypto 28% −$152
other 15% +$3
politics 6% −$16
sports 2% −$10
finance 0% −$10
economics 0% +$8
weather 0% $0
tech 0% +$2
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +31.2% +18.7% 41% 31% +1.7%
≤30d 108 +9.8% -0.6% 32% 26% -12.5%
≤90d 572 -8.9% -17.5% 34% 29% -10.6%
all 803 -8.9% -17.6% 39% 31% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 31% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 24% -19.8%
15% -32.7% 18% -27.6%
20% -39.3% 15% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses314 / 489
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)803 / 808
History coverage115d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 803 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 50¢ 84¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+67%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-67%)
Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by August 30? No 28¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 -15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -64%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $8 +$2 +23%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 18 $3 $0 +15%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 18 $131 −$41 -32%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +80%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 18 $4 +$8 +196%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Jun 18 $1 $0 -6%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $7 +$4 +56%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +10%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -24%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $3 +$3 +90%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -54%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +141%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 17 $1 $0 -6%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -52%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $7 $0 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -50%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $7 +$59 +836%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $9 $0 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$1 -24%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $3 +$1 +30%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 -50%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-Jun Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 -2%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 02 $9 −$5 -60%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -88%
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in May? May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? May 31 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? May 31 $3 $0 -8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? May 31 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $138 −$92 -66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? May 31 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? May 31 $1 $0 +8%
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? May 31 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes $1 9m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $1 24m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes $1 48m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $59 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes $0 18h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $3 21h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL No 36¢ $3 21h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $1 21h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $1 21h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 30¢ $1 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $7 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $8 22h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $2 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 23h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 27¢ $1 23h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $6 23h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 26¢ $1 23h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $5 23h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $1 25h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 24¢ $2 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $2 25h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes $6 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $4 25h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $1 25h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes $1 26h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 13¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.15 · official $12.15 (match) · 2906 history records