Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
61 0x61a4…f491 sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$774 (+19%) realized +$774 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate66%25W / 13L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$370
7 days−$178
14 days−$178
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$772
other 9% +$1
crypto 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +21.8% +10.2% 75% 50% -33.9%
≤30d 5 +36.1% +23.1% 80% 60% -19.8%
≤90d 8 -2.4% -11.7% 62% 38% -34.0%
all 38 +10.1% -0.4% 66% 42% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 42% +7.9%
10% -9.9% 42% -2.4%
15% -18.6% 42% -11.9%
20% -26.6% 42% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$105 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$774
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses25 / 13
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage230d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $96 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 24 $371 −$371 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 19 $184 +$186 +101%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 19 $8 +$7 +86%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 08 $98 +$92 +93%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $96 $0 +0%
Celtics vs. Hornets Apr 05 $98 −$98 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-4.5) Mar 23 $92 +$100 +108%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 5? Mar 08 $3 $0 +0%
Sabres vs. Penguins Mar 08 $97 −$97 -100%
Bucks vs. Thunder Feb 24 $99 −$99 -100%
Canadiens vs. Jets Feb 06 $392 +$392 +100%
Senators vs. Penguins Feb 04 $6 +$6 +100%
Canadiens vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 Feb 04 $187 +$194 +104%
Spread: Raptors (-1.5) Feb 02 $97 +$97 +100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 19-25? Jan 26 $12 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Lakers Jan 25 $186 −$186 -100%
Jazz vs. Mavericks Jan 18 $99 +$99 +100%
Spread: Patriots (-11.5) Jan 06 $99 −$99 -100%
Predators vs. Kraken Jan 03 $395 +$395 +100%
Cowboys vs. Commanders: O/U 50.5 Jan 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Jan 01 $20 −$11 -53%
76ers vs. Bulls Jan 01 $200 +$192 +96%
California vs. Hawaii Dec 26 $109 +$96 +89%
Rams vs. Seahawks Dec 20 $5 +$5 +100%
Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 48.5 Dec 16 $98 −$98 -100%
Utah vs. Ducks Dec 05 $95 −$95 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Nov 26 $94 +$101 +108%
Timberwolves vs. Suns Nov 24 $38 +$57 +150%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 19 $38 $0 +1%
Lakers vs. Bucks Nov 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 15 $89 $0 +0%
Jaguars vs. Texans Nov 11 $105 +$101 +96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 09 $45 +$1 +1%
Capitals vs. Penguins Nov 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $90 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 49¢ $371 5d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Spurs 53¢ $8 16d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $184 16d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 51¢ $98 20d
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) BUY Lakers 51¢ $101 48d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $96 52d
Celtics vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 50¢ $98 87d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $96 93d
Spread: Hornets (-4.5) BUY Hornets 48¢ $92 99d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 107d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 5? BUY No 100¢ $3 111d
Sabres vs. Penguins BUY Penguins 49¢ $97 111d
Bucks vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 85¢ $99 132d
Canadiens vs. Jets BUY Canadiens 50¢ $392 140d
Canadiens vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 49¢ $187 142d
Senators vs. Penguins BUY Senators 50¢ $6 142d
Spread: Raptors (-1.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $97 147d
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 19-25? BUY No 100¢ $12 150d
Raptors vs. Lakers BUY Raptors 49¢ $186 157d
Jazz vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks 50¢ $99 160d
Spread: Patriots (-11.5) BUY Dolphins 49¢ $99 171d
Predators vs. Kraken BUY Kraken 50¢ $395 174d
76ers vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 51¢ $200 180d
California vs. Hawaii BUY Hawaii 53¢ $109 182d
Cowboys vs. Commanders: O/U 50.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 182d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? BUY Yes $10 183d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? SELL Yes $0 185d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? SELL Yes $1 185d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? SELL Yes $0 185d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.95 · official $89.95 (match) · 87 history records