Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

61 0x61a8…a91b other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$2,678 (-53%) realized −$2,678 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip

Net edge-68%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate17%3W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$279per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$1,075now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$238

7 days−$966

14 days−$966

30 days−$966

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)-67.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-54.1%	-58.5%	25%	25%	-52.3%
≤30d	4	-54.1%	-58.5%	25%	25%	-52.3%
≤90d	14	-62.8%	-66.4%	14%	14%	-47.3%
all	18	-64.3%	-67.7%	17%	17%	-50.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-67.7%	17%	-50.3%
10%	-70.8%	11%	-55.1%
15%	-73.6%	11%	-59.4%
20%	-76.2%	11%	-63.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -64% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -76% → late -53% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$207 vs −$189 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.22 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage

Net worth$1,075

Realized−$2,678

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses3 / 15

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions0

Markets (closed)18 / 18

History coverage157d

Avg bet$279

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 18 Trades

no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$600	+$489	+82%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$261	−$251	-96%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$250	−$240	-96%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$999	−$963	-96%
Thunder vs. Spurs	May 22	$261	−$255	-98%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	May 22	$314	−$53	-17%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw?	May 13	$53	−$51	-97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?	May 11	$236	+$131	+56%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	May 09	$209	−$194	-93%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	May 09	$200	−$191	-96%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)	May 09	$40	−$40	-98%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C	May 09	$46	−$45	-97%
Will the fight be won by submission?	May 09	$250	−$244	-98%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	Apr 22	$995	−$15	-2%
Spurs vs. Warriors	Feb 11	$12	−$12	-100%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by January 31?	Feb 11	$10	+$2	+22%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24?	Jan 23	$185	−$185	-100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-01-24?	Jan 23	$97	−$97	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	55¢	$600	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	0¢	$10	25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	3¢	$251	26h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	2¢	$250	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	11¢	$999	4d
Thunder vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	55¢	$261	34d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	SELL Yes	63¢	$261	34d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	71¢	$314	35d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$53	43d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?	BUY Yes	63¢	$136	46d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	BUY No	8¢	$99	47d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?	BUY Yes	63¢	$100	47d
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	BUY No	50¢	$100	47d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)	BUY Tatsuro Taira	61¢	$40	47d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C	BUY Waldo Cortes-Acosta	44¢	$46	47d
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	BUY No	46¢	$100	47d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	BUY No	8¢	$109	47d
Will the fight be won by submission?	BUY Yes	51¢	$250	47d
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	SELL No	81¢	$981	64d
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	BUY No	82¢	$995	65d
Spurs vs. Warriors	BUY Warriors	32¢	$12	134d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24?	BUY Yes	52¢	$185	153d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-01-24?	BUY Yes	32¢	$97	153d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by January 31?	BUY No	82¢	$10	157d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,074.71 · official $1,074.71 (match) · 26 history records