Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:24:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61a9…377d world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 323d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+2%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$14
economics 11% $0
crypto 10% $0
politics 9% $0
other 7% −$3
tech 6% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -12.5% -20.8% 0% 0% -20.8%
≤30d 12 +11.7% +1.1% 33% 8% -7.2%
≤90d 12 +11.7% +1.1% 33% 8% -7.2%
all 35 +5.5% -4.5% 31% 9% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 9% -8.0%
10% -13.7% 6% -16.8%
15% -22.0% 6% -24.9%
20% -29.7% 3% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.9 per $1 lost it wins $2.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

323d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage323d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $51 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $22 −$3 -12%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $41 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $68 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $10 +$15 +151%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $46 −$3 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $46 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $48 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $4 $0 +8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $46 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 18 $1 $0 +41%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 18 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $4 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 455–469 times August 8–August 15? Aug 12 $6 $0 -4%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Aug 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Aug 10 $39 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Aug 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 07 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Aug 07 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025? Aug 06 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 05 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $51 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $22 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $59 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $59 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 18¢ $7 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 18¢ $18 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $10 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $29 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $29 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $8 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $6 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $14 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $47 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $46 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $38 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $38 13d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 13d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.62 · official $51.62 (match) · 97 history records