Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:58:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
61 0x61aa…216a sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$421 (+13%) realized +$216 · open +$205
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$670now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$389
14 days+$360
30 days+$350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$298
other 33% +$279
crypto 2% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -15.8% -23.8% 44% 44% +3.8%
≤30d 30 -19.6% -27.2% 43% 43% +2.1%
≤90d 30 -19.6% -27.2% 43% 43% +2.1%
all 30 -19.6% -27.2% 43% 43% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 43% +2.1%
10% -34.2% 43% -7.7%
15% -40.5% 40% -16.6%
20% -46.4% 27% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$57 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$670
Realized+$216
Unrealized+$205
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions7
Markets (closed)30 / 37
History coverage14d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 49¢ 99¢ $98 $198 +$100 (+103%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 50¢ 93¢ $98 $181 +$84 (+86%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $111 $149 +$38 (+35%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $63 $61 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $48 $43 −$6 (-12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $18 $10 −$9 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $101 +$118 +116%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $152 −$148 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $100 −$97 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 23 $100 −$97 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $20 −$19 -96%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $150 +$74 +49%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $50 +$59 +119%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$25 +51%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$121 +121%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $200 +$146 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $139 +$64 +46%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $28 −$27 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $50 +$78 +156%
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Jun 22 $51 −$49 -96%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $200 +$340 +170%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $150 −$146 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $32 −$31 -96%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $250 +$82 +33%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 21 $49 −$47 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $50 +$48 +97%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $380 +$158 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$6 -93%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 49¢ $100 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $100 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $101 9h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 44¢ $52 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 28h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 40¢ $50 28h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 36¢ $100 28h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 28h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $224 28h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $109 28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 39h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 39h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $50 39h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 37¢ $50 42h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $100 42h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 42h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 65¢ $150 42h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 40¢ $100 46h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $50 46h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $28 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $100 2d
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Argentina $51 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $100 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $100 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $139 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $669.79 · official $680.39 · 73 history records