Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:53:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
61 0x61ab…b2a0 finance 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$79 (+9%) realized +$78 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 42% +$36
other 31% +$11
politics 27% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +18.8% +7.5% 100% 100% +7.5%
≤30d 1 +18.8% +7.5% 100% 100% +7.5%
≤90d 3 +9.1% -1.3% 100% 33% -1.1%
all 6 +13.5% +2.7% 100% 33% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 33% -0.2%
10% -7.1% 17% -9.8%
15% -16.1% 17% -18.5%
20% -24.3% 0% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage246d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 22 $134 +$25 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 07 $128 +$6 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 03 $124 +$4 +3%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 13 $130 +$11 +8%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 09 $58 +$25 +43%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 07 $170 +$5 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.73 · official $167.73 (match) · 204 history records