trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 25% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 18% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 18% | 0% | -9.9% |
| all | 27 | -7.0% | -15.9% | 48% | 0% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.9% | 0% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -23.9% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -31.3% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -38.0% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 5¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-46%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 20 | $107 | −$2 | -2% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 19 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 18 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 16 | $69 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $4 | $0 | -7% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 15 | $25 | +$1 | +4% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $31 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 08 | $1 | $0 | -9% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 03 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 24 | $1 | $0 | -12% |
| Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 14 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? | May 21 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? | May 20 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? | May 20 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City | May 18 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? | May 18 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 17 | $16 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? | May 08 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Atalanta win the Serie A? | Mar 28 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? | Mar 27 | $16 | $0 | +2% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Mar 25 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 22? | Mar 24 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? | Mar 22 | $15 | $0 | +3% |
| Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? | Mar 19 | $2 | −$2 | -89% |
| BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? | Mar 15 | $16 | +$1 | +3% |