Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:03:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
61 0x61b2…87e6 crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$65 (+11%) realized +$60 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$25
crypto 29% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.9% -12.2% 75% 62% +6.8%
≤30d 8 -2.9% -12.2% 75% 62% +6.8%
≤90d 8 -2.9% -12.2% 75% 62% +6.8%
all 8 -2.9% -12.2% 75% 62% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 62% +6.8%
10% -20.6% 12% -3.4%
15% -28.2% 12% -12.7%
20% -35.3% 12% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.51 per $1 lost it wins $6.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$305
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$32 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$8 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $131 +$20 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $304.86 · official $304.86 (match) · 23 history records