trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 5 | -19.8% | -27.4% | 60% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 13 | -13.2% | -21.4% | 54% | 8% | -8.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -21.4% | 8% | -8.0% |
| 10% | -28.9% | 0% | -16.8% |
| 15% | -35.8% | 0% | -24.9% |
| 20% | -42.1% | 0% | -32.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 93¢ | 93¢ | $93 | $93 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 49¢ | 36¢ | $2 | $2 | −$1 (-28%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | May 08 | $268 | +$2 | +1% |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | May 01 | $3 | −$3 | -98% |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Apr 20 | $191 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 10 | $196 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Mar 26 | $228 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Mar 19 | $147 | −$1 | -1% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Mar 11 | $300 | +$22 | +7% |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | Feb 27 | $67 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Feb 09 | $181 | +$5 | +3% |
| EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Jan 31 | $3 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | Jan 31 | $209 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap | Jan 23 | $41 | +$7 | +18% |
| Bulls vs. Nets | Jan 16 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |