Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:51:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
61 0x61b9…00fa sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,858 (+37%) realized +$1,894 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$848per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$992now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 48d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,775
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -6.8% -15.6% 0% 0% -15.6%
≤30d 2 +33.2% +20.5% 50% 50% +34.4%
≤90d 4 +29.1% +16.8% 75% 75% +30.9%
all 4 +29.1% +16.8% 75% 75% +30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.8% 75% +30.9%
10% +5.6% 75% +18.4%
15% -4.6% 25% +7.0%
20% -13.9% 25% -3.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$628 vs −$71 · ×8.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×26.61 per $1 lost it wins $26.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$992
Realized+$1,894
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage48d
Avg bet$848
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Caleb Wilson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 87¢ 82¢ $535 $508 −$27 (-5%)
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $494 $485 −$9 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 22 $1,045 −$71 -7%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $2,346 +$1,717 +73%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $362 +$93 +26%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $298 +$72 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Caleb Wilson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 87¢ $537 41m
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 75¢ $498 2h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL Yes 77¢ $975 45h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,045 6d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 57¢ $5 29d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 57¢ $2,341 29d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 79¢ $362 47d
76ers vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 100¢ $370 47d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 80¢ $298 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $992.19 · official $1,007.77 · 11 history records