Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:12:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61ba…9b17 world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%9W / 20L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$2
other 21% $0
politics 12% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -6.9% -15.8% 30% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 12 -5.7% -14.7% 25% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 12 -5.7% -14.7% 25% 0% -9.1%
all 29 -5.7% -14.7% 31% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 0% -9.2%
10% -22.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -30.3% 0% -25.8%
20% -37.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage446d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $105 +$4 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $29 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $65 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $31 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -71%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 22 $2 $0 -1%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Jun 26 $11 $0 +3%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? May 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will Malik Beasley win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 12 $12 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $13 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 02 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 30 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $34 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $34 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $37 8h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $32 11h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 16h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $28 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $29 25h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 36h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 36h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 36h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 39h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $29 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $22 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $13 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $13 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $30 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $30 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $34 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $34 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $15 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $10 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $21 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $31 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records