Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:09:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61bc…d436 sports 112 markets active 0h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$28 (+1%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%51W / 59L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$275
7 days−$130
14 days−$130
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$384
other 33% −$218
world 2% −$39
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -18.9% -26.6% 45% 43% -25.1%
≤30d 60 -18.9% -26.6% 45% 43% -25.1%
≤90d 69 -17.6% -25.4% 43% 42% -22.3%
all 110 -3.7% -12.9% 46% 45% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 45% -3.5%
10% -21.2% 43% -12.7%
15% -28.8% 40% -21.2%
20% -35.8% 32% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$12 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses51 / 59
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 112
History coverage162d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $13 +$7 +54%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $19 +$11 +59%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 +$5 +100%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $18 +$9 +48%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 +$4 +82%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Newcastle United FC 1 - 1 Manchester United FC? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Newcastle United FC 1 - 2 Manchester United FC? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Newcastle United FC 2 - 2 Manchester United FC? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-24? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-12? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $19 −$12 -61%
Exact Score: Newcastle United FC 0 - 1 Manchester United FC? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Seattle Sounders FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-24? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-26? Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-04-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina Jun 17 $11 +$10 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $4 +$6 +132%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $9 +$8 +82%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $14 +$6 +43%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$3 +30%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$10 +197%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $9 +$11 +122%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 +$9 +170%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $6 +$4 +82%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 AN Jun 15 $30 +$26 +86%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $11 +$7 +65%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 19m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $4 48m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 49m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $7 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $19 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 64¢ $13 6h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $7 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5 6h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 7h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $6 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Gh BUY 44¢ $11 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $17 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $12 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 63¢ $6 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $9 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 28h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $2 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $2 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $2 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $2 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $2 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 251 history records