Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:28:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
61 0x61c1…0513 sports 1938 markets active 0h ago coverage 243d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 242d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,725 (-4%) realized −$7,747 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate61%1244W / 791L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$835est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 243d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$3,125
other 4% +$590
world 0% −$400
crypto 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 195 -60.1% -63.9% 27% 26% -63.9%
≤30d 354 -32.2% -38.7% 45% 43% -39.4%
≤90d 950 -11.8% -20.2% 59% 55% -20.4%
all 2035 -7.9% -16.6% 61% 58% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 58% -16.4%
10% -24.6% 47% -24.4%
15% -31.9% 35% -31.7%
20% -38.6% 23% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$93 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized−$7,747
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses1244 / 791
Est. fees paid−$835
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2035 / 1938
History coverage243d ⚠
Avg bet$98
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2035 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Laslo Djere 65¢ 64¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Marie Bouzkova 71¢ 97¢ $65 $89 +$24 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China Open: Sonay Kartal vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
China Open: Elsa Jacquemot vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Damir Dzumhur vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Daniel Altmaier vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Royals vs. Guardians Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
ATP Cincinnati - Rublev vs. Alcaraz Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
China Open: Learner Tien vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Frances Tiafoe vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Tallon Griekspoor vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
US Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
US Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Jaume Munar Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Tigers vs. Athletics Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
European Open: Joao Fonseca vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Juncheng Shang vs Nuno Borges Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Rebecca Sramkova Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Cubs vs. Giants Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Red Sox vs. Yankees Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
US Open: Emma Navarro vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 18 $115 −$115 -100%
Ningbo Open: Clara Tauson vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 18 $84 −$84 -100%
US Open: Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alex de Minaur Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2025-10-10? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Chengdu Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
China Open: Learner Tien vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 18 $95 −$95 -100%
Japan Women's Open: Katie Boulter vs Linda Noskova Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
China Open: Rebecca Sramkova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Wuhan Tennis Open: Moyuka Uchijima vs Xinyu Wang Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Orioles vs. Padres Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Valencia win on 2025-09-30? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Ningbo Open: McCartney Kessler vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Corentin Moutet vs Learner Tien Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Juventus win on 2025-09-27? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Ben Shelton vs David Goffin Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
China Open: Xinyu Wang vs Shuai Zhang Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Chengdu Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
China Open: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Jason Kubler vs Coleman Wong Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Marton Fucsovics vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
US Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Iga Swiatek Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
ATP Cincinnati - Tsitsipas vs. Bonzi Jun 18 $84 −$84 -100%
Ningbo Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Dodgers vs. Padres Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sevilla win on 2025-09-12? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Tigers vs. Athletics Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Francisco Comesana vs David Goffin Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Louisiana Tech vs. Kennesaw State Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification: Alexandra Eala vs Moyuka Uchijima Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
White Sox vs. Tigers Jun 18 $100 −$107 -107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp SELL Tommy Paul 100¢ $159 7m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $122 29m
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman BUY Marie Bouzkova 71¢ $65 41m
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Laslo Djere 65¢ $101 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 82¢ $101 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 63¢ $101 1h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $139 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Alina Korneeva 64¢ $101 2h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Grigor Dimitrov 63¢ $101 2h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 72¢ $101 3h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 68¢ $101 3h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys BUY Elina Svitolina 86¢ $100 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 18h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 54¢ $101 19h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $101 19h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 64¢ $101 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 20h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 56¢ $101 22h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 77¢ $101 22h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 69¢ $101 23h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 39¢ $102 24h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 91¢ $100 24h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $114 24h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke SELL Christopher OConnell 100¢ $141 24h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Alex de Minaur 100¢ $123 24h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 71¢ $101 25h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Alex de Minaur 81¢ $101 26h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 88¢ $100 26h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 67¢ $47 47h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 47¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.54 · official $185.46 (match) · 3500 history records