Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:56:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61c7…01dd other 305 markets active 0h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 166d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$406 (+1%) realized +$491 · open −$85
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate57%162W / 124L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$718now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$12
14 days+$111
30 days+$496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$1,712
other 24% +$93
sports 7% +$212
tech 7% −$195
crypto 4% −$586
finance 4% −$75
politics 2% +$92
economics 1% +$23
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +27.2% +15.1% 60% 54% -9.9%
≤30d 64 +18.6% +7.3% 59% 53% -3.1%
≤90d 161 -1.7% -11.1% 48% 31% -9.8%
all 286 -0.9% -10.3% 57% 28% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 28% -7.5%
10% -18.9% 19% -16.3%
15% -26.7% 15% -24.4%
20% -33.9% 12% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$43 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$718
Realized+$491
Unrealized−$85
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses162 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions16
Markets (closed)286 / 305
History coverage166d ⚠
Avg bet$201
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $143 $143 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $112 $113 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 53¢ $118 $106 −$12 (-10%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 55¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 41¢ 24¢ $81 $47 −$34 (-42%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $33 $37 +$4 (+12%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $21 $30 +$10 (+45%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $32 $28 −$4 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $22 $26 +$3 (+14%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $19 $25 +$6 (+32%)
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 10¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $16 −$3 (-14%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 62¢ 15¢ $62 $15 −$47 (-76%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 26¢ 10¢ $26 $10 −$16 (-60%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$107 +349%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $122 −$6 -5%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$55 +178%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5 Jun 17 $31 +$58 +191%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $26 +$68 +265%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $474 −$223 -47%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $41 +$2 +4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $225 −$225 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $59 +$41 +70%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $61 +$38 +63%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 +$48 +93%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $66 +$34 +52%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $50 +$50 +101%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $43 +$42 +97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $50 +$24 +48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $50 +$42 +84%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $116 +$30 +26%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $57 +$43 +75%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $48 +$52 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $79 −$78 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $201 −$8 -4%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $43 +$1 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $73 +$27 +36%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $70 +$30 +43%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $88 +$12 +13%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $227 −$4 -2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $105 −$105 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $102 +$84 +82%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $215 −$15 -7%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $141 −$141 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $95 +$85 +90%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $47 −$46 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $156 −$56 -36%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $55 +$45 +82%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $92 −$61 -67%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $151 +$49 +33%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $130 +$70 +54%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 09 $44 +$6 +13%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $49 +$51 +105%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $53 +$47 +89%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $82 +$50 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $8 13m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $27 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 16¢ $26 4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 58¢ $32 10h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 58¢ $84 10h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $56 13h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 61¢ $122 16h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Croatia: O/U BUY 17¢ $31 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 22¢ $31 19h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY 35¢ $31 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes $4 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes $4 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 48¢ $20 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5 BUY 34¢ $31 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $35 36h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY 27¢ $26 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $35 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $37 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 54¢ $107 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $61 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 27¢ $20 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $42 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $215 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 46¢ $93 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $107 2d
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $8 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $13 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $2 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $717.84 · official $742.86 · 3500 history records