Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:52:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61c8…25c1 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-2%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -14.2% -22.4% 45% 45% -28.5%
≤30d 11 -14.2% -22.4% 45% 45% -28.5%
≤90d 11 -14.2% -22.4% 45% 45% -28.5%
all 11 -14.2% -22.4% 45% 45% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 45% -28.5%
10% -29.8% 45% -35.3%
15% -36.6% 45% -41.6%
20% -42.8% 45% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records