Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:27:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61c9…01a7 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$60 (-10%) realized −$61 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$134
sports 33% +$84
crypto 4% +$18
culture 1% +$1
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -35.4% -41.5% 27% 24% -15.8%
≤30d 33 -35.4% -41.5% 27% 24% -15.8%
≤90d 33 -35.4% -41.5% 27% 24% -15.8%
all 37 -30.1% -36.7% 32% 30% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.7% 30% -16.1%
10% -42.8% 27% -24.1%
15% -48.3% 27% -31.5%
20% -53.4% 22% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$8 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 25
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 42
History coverage150d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $48 $0 -1%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $39 +$17 +44%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $7 +$4 +51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 −$5 -27%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe Jun 20 $20 +$23 +113%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 +$14 +73%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $11 −$11 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +7%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$14 +133%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$24 +238%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: Bo Jun 17 $20 +$71 +348%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +54%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 02 $5 +$4 +89%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 02 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 26 $2 +$1 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 46¢ $15 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $12 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $43 7h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 37¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 11¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $28 11h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $20 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $39 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 58¢ $36 26h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $11 28h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $17 29h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe SELL 79¢ $43 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $19 38h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe BUY 36¢ $20 38h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $11 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Scotland vs. Moro BUY 25¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.82 · official $100.82 (match) · 62 history records