Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:59:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61cd…1e02 crypto 1181 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$10 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate75%883W / 296L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$6
14 days−$208
30 days−$560
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$149
sports 35% +$340
other 4% −$415
weather 2% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -17.2% -25.1% 57% 57% -6.7%
≤30d 361 -7.0% -15.8% 68% 43% -14.9%
≤90d 739 -3.5% -12.7% 75% 39% -10.5%
all 1179 -3.1% -12.3% 75% 34% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 34% -10.6%
10% -20.7% 23% -19.1%
15% -28.4% 14% -26.9%
20% -35.4% 9% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$20 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses883 / 296
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1179 / 1181
History coverage161d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 24¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Team Liquid 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $30 +$28 +91%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$19 +62%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $3 +$2 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 +$2 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 26 $3 +$3 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 25 $2 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 25 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 24? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 22? Jun 23 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 +$2 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $61 −$10 -16%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -58%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -44%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -44%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$7 -71%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 24¢ $31 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 16¢ $10 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $58 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 51¢ $30 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 34h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 42h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 26? BUY No 76¢ $5 42h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 26? BUY No 75¢ $5 42h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 26? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 43h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 73¢ $5 43h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? BUY No 65¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 25? BUY No 60¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 49¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 60¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 76¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 75¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 24? BUY No 79¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 55¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 73¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? BUY No 77¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 24? BUY No 72¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? BUY No 63¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 67¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 23? BUY No 73¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 23? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.09 (match) · 3276 history records