Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:14:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
61 0x61cd…541e sports 586 markets active 4d ago coverage 391d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,313 (-3%) realized −$3,313 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate66%387W / 199L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$344est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,200
14 days−$6,237
30 days−$4,406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$7,386
politics 17% +$3,219
other 15% +$567
world 5% +$305
crypto 1% −$319
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -3.3% -12.5% 68% 43% -17.6%
≤30d 176 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 48% -15.9%
≤90d 242 -16.6% -24.5% 55% 38% -21.6%
all 586 -0.2% -9.7% 66% 46% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 46% -12.2%
10% -18.3% 31% -20.6%
15% -26.2% 20% -28.3%
20% -33.4% 13% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$105 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

391d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,313
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses387 / 199
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$344
Open positions0
Markets (closed)586 / 586
History coverage391d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 586 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $345 −$343 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $316 +$30 +10%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 15 $224 +$88 +40%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 14 $387 −$11 -3%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $69 +$7 +10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $518 −$319 -62%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $194 +$3 +1%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $85 +$3 +4%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $303 −$297 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 14 $256 +$144 +56%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $198 −$133 -67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $202 −$199 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 14 $210 +$75 +36%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 14 $423 −$391 -92%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $516 −$376 -73%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 14 $468 −$467 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $57 +$43 +76%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $139 +$61 +44%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 14 $44 −$44 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $71 +$5 +7%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $133 +$118 +88%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $99 +$51 +52%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $131 +$69 +52%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $921 +$266 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $125 −$3 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $144 +$56 +39%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $131 +$69 +53%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $157 +$43 +27%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $109 +$91 +83%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $200 +$32 +16%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $274 +$51 +18%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $443 +$23 +5%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $419 +$30 +7%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $273 +$27 +10%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $142 +$18 +12%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $188 +$11 +6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $185 −$183 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $473 −$145 -31%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $93 +$7 +7%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $455 +$74 +16%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $59 −$48 -80%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $960 +$53 +6%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 11 $305 +$89 +29%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $182 +$123 +67%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants Jun 11 $202 +$32 +16%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 11 $1,262 +$125 +10%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 11 $785 −$777 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1,026 +$112 +11%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $303 −$93 -30%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3,180 −$1,846 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $345 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $346 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $316 3d
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 72¢ $76 3d
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 72¢ $68 3d
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 73¢ $4 3d
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 82¢ $148 3d
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 71¢ $62 3d
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 71¢ $14 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 80¢ $196 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 98¢ $197 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 79¢ $44 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 22¢ $43 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 91¢ $36 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 91¢ $10 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 91¢ $20 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 91¢ $3 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $127 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 35¢ $69 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $151 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 97¢ $194 4d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 97¢ $13 4d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 97¢ $41 4d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 95¢ $13 4d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 94¢ $5 4d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 94¢ $14 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 21¢ $65 4d
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) SELL Colorado Rockies $3 4d
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) SELL Colorado Rockies $1 4d
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) SELL Colorado Rockies $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2858 history records