Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:47:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
61 0x61d3…189a sports 783 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,812 (+12%) realized +$3,947 · open −$135
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%393W / 385L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$508est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days+$113
14 days−$136
30 days+$1,032
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,416
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -4.6% -13.7% 57% 43% +1.5%
≤30d 150 +17.3% +6.1% 48% 45% +5.9%
≤90d 778 +7.5% -2.8% 51% 47% +0.2%
all 778 +7.5% -2.8% 51% 47% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 47% +0.2%
10% -12.1% 43% -9.4%
15% -20.6% 36% -18.1%
20% -28.4% 30% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$28 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$3,947
Unrealized−$135
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses393 / 385
Est. fees paid−$508
Open positions5
Markets (closed)778 / 783
History coverage76d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 778 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Over 47¢ 68¢ $32 $46 +$15 (+46%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Cincinnati Reds 29¢ 52¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+79%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Over 16¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+72%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Under 30¢ $152 $0 −$151 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 58¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 247 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 30 $20 −$5 -24%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 30 $185 +$140 +76%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $33 +$3 +8%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $94 −$94 -100%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $341 +$176 +52%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $93 −$78 -84%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 25 $10 +$5 +55%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 25 $0 $0 +97%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $9 +$13 +134%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $32 +$1 +2%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 23 $51 +$10 +20%
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 179.5 Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 168.5 Jun 22 $14 −$14 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 22 $68 −$7 -10%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $19 −$4 -19%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 21 $9 −$2 -18%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $45 −$12 -27%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $71 +$91 +128%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs Jun 21 $1 +$4 +550%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 20 $16 +$26 +165%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $25 +$45 +180%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $12 −$11 -98%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Jun 20 $25 −$24 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $64 −$63 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 20 $112 −$111 -99%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 20 $9 $0 -2%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +105%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5 Jun 20 $14 +$13 +90%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $50 +$29 +58%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $34 +$6 +17%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $23 −$4 -16%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $47 −$46 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) Jun 18 $9 −$9 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $17 −$1 -6%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 Jun 18 $22 −$21 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $22 −$22 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $26 −$26 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $34 +$27 +80%
Gibson vs. Zheng: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $6 +$5 +81%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $66 +$69 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 14 $0 +$1 +442%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 14 $34 +$66 +193%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 Jun 14 $45 +$154 +344%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over $0 2m
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 12¢ $15 5m
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 15¢ $20 6m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 30¢ $143 1h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 56¢ $185 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $1 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 64¢ $32 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 66¢ $33 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 47¢ $32 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 30¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 27¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 26¢ $27 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 22¢ $33 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $1 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 41¢ $94 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 20¢ $55 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $83 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $9 5h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 92¢ $33 5h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $226 5h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Phoenix Mercury 64¢ $10 5d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 43¢ $51 5d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks BUY No 50¢ $0 5d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs BUY Yes 47¢ $5 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 BUY Under 15¢ $2 5d
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Dallas Wings 69¢ $33 6d
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 66¢ $32 6d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 42¢ $9 6d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 7d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 83¢ $51 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.18 · official $52.18 (match) · 1704 history records