Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61d4…05a3 crypto 1143 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$44 (-1%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate86%988W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$7
14 days−$10
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$46
weather 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 259 -1.7% -11.1% 90% 15% -11.8%
≤30d 932 -0.8% -10.3% 92% 10% -10.4%
≤90d 1048 -3.7% -12.8% 89% 9% -11.1%
all 1143 -1.3% -10.7% 86% 14% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 14% -11.2%
10% -19.2% 7% -19.7%
15% -27.0% 6% -27.4%
20% -34.2% 6% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses988 / 155
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1143 / 1143
History coverage159d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1143 Trades
no open positions (77 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.04 · official $1.04 (match) · 2458 history records