Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
61 0x61de…b04c other 16 markets active 3d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$66 (+45%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$36
sports 28% +$43
crypto 10% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +23.1% +11.4% 38% 38% +30.0%
≤30d 16 +23.1% +11.4% 38% 38% +30.0%
≤90d 16 +23.1% +11.4% 38% 38% +30.0%
all 16 +23.1% +11.4% 38% 38% +30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.4% 38% +30.0%
10% +0.7% 38% +17.6%
15% -9.0% 38% +6.2%
20% -17.9% 31% -4.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +146% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$8 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$68 +442%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$18 +172%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 6d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 6d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records